BIG MARLEY’S UFC 235 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a great deal of money from this week and I can not wait to chase these huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I won my very first seat into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $50k decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots in the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my cash game lineup this week in his -800 gaming lineup. I will take that free square foot and proceed. He must dominate this battle and he can finish it on the toes or the ground. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am totally fine with paying 9.6k for that. When I’m making lineups, I want to try and get at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That’s how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I didn’t think Jones could find a finish then maybe he just scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t need that. Nonetheless, this is a possible 5-round battle, and I really do expect Jones to dominate, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones since he’ll be very highly possessed. If he’s 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then will pretty much kill half the area since that would not be enough points to put him that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be out of his wrestling. He’s among the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he is finally getting an opportunity from the UFC after dominating every organization he’s been in. He will not want to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, so that I expect him to shoot for takedowns right away and chain wrestle till he gets them. When he gets high control there isn’t going to become a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he should take a beating so long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a substantial strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that is what makes him a great play if he is able to think of the victory.
Underdog play of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of older, but I think he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the volume alone from Sanchez should acquire it there as long as he doesn’t get knocked out. The chin of Diego is exactly what I worry about most nowadays, but Gall is not much of a striker and that I really don’t see him getting knockout. I also don’t understand that Gall can get takedowns, and I believe Sanchez would be the more likely guy to be on top if the fight hits the ground. A entry is the best chance at a win of Gall here and Sanchez hasn’t been filed. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego enables us to cover up for all those guys like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he can grind a determination triumph here I presume he can become 10x that wages and if we can get a win against him in the inexpensive salary, I think we will be in line for that $50k win if we hit our other five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter because I’m making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the man I want the very least of. I attempt to acquire a favored for you guys as my fade of this week but I do not think there are any must fade favorites this week. Rather, I’m going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a chance. I think that a fluke KO is the only route to success for Smith and that he really does not have the one punch/kick power it would take to pull off. I would be shocked when Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I had been making 20 or less lineups, he’d be a simple fade.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 58-37 to get +177.62un (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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